Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 62

Detroit Lions 28 – New Orleans Saints 10

(1:33) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to NO 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-B.Cooks to NO 27 for 6 yards (25-T.Riddick).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model