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Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2015-12-20 · 16:05 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 14.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CLE
18.5%
SEA
81.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.244 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA defense: -0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 16
–
SEA 29
Projected margin: SEA by 13 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CLE

Andrew Hawkins WR Out Concussion
Glenn Winston RB Out Concussion
Travis Coons K Questionable right Groin
Justin Gilbert CB Questionable Concussion
Marlon Moore WR Questionable Ribs
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Shoulder
Johnson Bademosi CB Probable Elbow
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow
Joe Thomas T Probable Knee

SEA

Jordan Hill DT Out Toe
Marshawn Lynch RB Out Abdomen
Anthony McCoy TE Out Knee
Kam Chancellor S Questionable Pelvis
DeShawn Shead CB Questionable Ankle
Cliff Avril DE Probable Not Injury Related
Michael Bennett DE Probable Toe
Demarcus Dobbs DE Probable Concussion
Luke Willson TE Probable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 13
–
SEA 30

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:13 TD CLE (8:13) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short left to 82-G.Barnidge for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 00:47 TD SEA (:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – SEA 6
  • Q2 10:01 TD SEA (10:01) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 89-D.Baldwin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-24-J.Bademosi, Defensive Holding, declined. CLE 7 – SEA 13
  • Q2 06:35 FG CLE (6:35) 6-T.Coons 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 10 – SEA 14
  • Q2 01:00 FG SEA (1:00) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CLE 10 – SEA 17
  • Q2 00:00 FG SEA (:00) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. Untimed down due to defensive penalty on previous play. CLE 10 – SEA 20
  • Q4 15:00 TD SEA (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – SEA 26
  • Q4 09:07 FG CLE (9:07) 6-T.Coons 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 13 – SEA 27
  • Q4 03:37 FG SEA (3:37) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CLE 13 – SEA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (14:02) 8-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SEA 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 43 for 5 yards (82-G.Barnidge).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (6:35) 6-T.Coons 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 70%

    (1:00) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (:23) 8-A.Lee punts 44 yards to SEA 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:18) 9-J.Ryan punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 41%

    (6:03) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to SEA 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-47-C.Hughlett.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 90%

    (9:07) 6-T.Coons 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (3:37) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.