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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 9-J.Ryan punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model