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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(14:02) 8-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SEA 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 43 for 5 yards (82-G.Barnidge).

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.99 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model