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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.96 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model