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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 7 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 6-T.Coons 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.04 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model