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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 10 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(:23) 8-A.Lee punts 44 yards to SEA 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.63 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model