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New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
Monday 2015-12-14 · 20:30 Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

NYG
50.7%
MIA
49.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NYG: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.046 vs Eli Manning (NYG) +0.126 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 23
–
MIA 22
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NYG

Devon Kennard LB Out Foot
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Neck
Ereck Flowers T Questionable Ankle
Brandon Meriweather S Questionable Knee
Marshall Newhouse T Probable Back

MIA

Ja'Wuan James T Out Toe
Rishard Matthews WR Out Ribs
Brandon Williams TE Out Foot
Earl Mitchell DT Questionable Calf
Branden Albert T Probable Not Injury Related
John Denney LS Probable Neck
Jelani Jenkins LB Probable Ankle
Jordan Phillips DT Probable Shoulder
Jarvis Landry WR Probable Knee
Mike Pouncey C Probable Foot
Kenny Stills WR Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 31
–
MIA 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:13 FG NYG (11:13) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-D.Aiken, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – MIA 0
  • Q1 05:48 TD MIA (5:48) 26-L.Miller left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – MIA 6
  • Q2 13:05 TD NYG (13:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 82-R.Randle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – MIA 7
  • Q2 10:19 TD MIA (10:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-L.Miller right guard for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 10 – MIA 13
  • Q2 01:56 FG MIA (1:56) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. NYG 10 – MIA 17
  • Q2 00:50 TD NYG (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 45-W.Tye for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – MIA 17
  • Q3 09:48 TD MIA (9:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 17 – MIA 23
  • Q3 05:07 TD NYG (5:07) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham Jr.. New York Giants challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 23 – MIA 24
  • Q4 11:28 TD NYG (11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG-76-E.Flowers was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. NYG 30 – MIA 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 92%

    (11:13) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-D.Aiken, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 78%

    (7:09) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle to NYG 26 for 2 yards (96-J.Bromley).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:11) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 34 yards to MIA 25, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:39) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to NYG 10, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-D.Harris to NYG 30 for 20 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 52 yards to MIA 24, Center-57-D.Aiken. 14-J.Landry ran ob at MIA 34 for 10 yards (54-J.Casillas).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 34%

    (6:02) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to NYG 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 91%

    (1:56) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 54 yards to MIA 19, Center-57-D.Aiken. 14-J.Landry to MIA 39 for 20 yards (43-C.Dahl). NYG-55-J.Thomas was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:36) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 68 yards to NYG 4, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-D.Harris to NYG 19 for 15 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 74%

    (:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-D.Aiken, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 39%

    (12:08) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to NYG 4, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 47%

    (7:29) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to NYG 2, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-36-T.Lippett.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:59) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to NYG 48, Center-57-D.Aiken, downed by NYG-43-C.Dahl.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 27%

    (4:52) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.