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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(3:36) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 68 yards to NYG 4, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-D.Harris to NYG 19 for 15 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP