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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(6:02) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 36 yards to NYG 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.18 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP