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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 59

New York Giants 3 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 34 yards to MIA 25, Center-57-D.Aiken, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP