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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller up the middle to NYG 26 for 2 yards (96-J.Bromley).

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.46 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model