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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 18

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model