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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 13:00 TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

SEA
48.1%
MIN
51.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Teddy Bridgewater (MIN): -0.025 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SEA

Demarcus Dobbs DE Out Concussion
Jordan Hill DT Out Toe
Paul Richardson WR Out Hamstring
Marshawn Lynch RB Out Abdomen
Marcus Burley CB Questionable Ankle
Will Tukuafu RB Questionable Concussion
Michael Bennett DE Probable Not Injury Related
Jeremy Lane CB Probable Knee
Patrick Lewis C Probable Knee
Earl Thomas S Probable Hip

MIN

Linval Joseph DT Out Foot
Andrew Sendejo S Out Knee
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Hand
Harrison Smith S Questionable Knee
Robert Blanton S Probable Ankle
Trae Waynes CB Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 38
–
MIN 7

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:42 TD SEA (3:42) 34-T.Rawls left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 02:11 TD SEA (2:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – MIN 0
  • Q2 01:08 TD SEA (1:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – MIN 0
  • Q3 09:17 TD SEA (9:17) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 22-F.Jackson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – MIN 0
  • Q3 01:08 TD SEA (1:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-E.Kendricks]. SEA 34 – MIN 0
  • Q3 01:01 TD MIN 4-S.Hauschka kicks 66 yards from SEA 35 to MIN -1. 84-C.Patterson for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 35 – MIN 6
  • Q4 08:04 FG SEA (8:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 38 – MIN 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:30) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to SEA 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:39) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 46 yards to SEA 29, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 6 yards (47-K.McDermott). PENALTY on SEA-20-J.Lane, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 29.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:16) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to MIN 16, Center-49-C.Gresham. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 25 for 9 yards (91-C.Marsh).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 54%

    (8:28) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to SEA 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:07) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 22 yards to SEA 48, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds. Kick Blocked by 58

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 14 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:08) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to SEA 39, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to MIN 42 for 19 yards (58-B.Watts). MIN-18-J.Locke was injured during the play.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 69%

    (12:13) 3-R.Wilson right end ran ob at MIN 31 for 2 yards (36-R.Blanton).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (8:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 34%

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Wallace.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:08) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to MIN 15, Center-49-C.Gresham. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 39 for 24 yards (91-C.Marsh, 33-K.McCray). PENALTY on MIN-59-J.Trusnik, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 30.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 19 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:32) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to MIN 49, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-B.Daniels to MIN 42 for 7 yards (59-J.Trusnik). PENALTY on SEA-47-E.Pinkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 42.