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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model