4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 33

Seattle Seahawks 35 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 3-R.Wilson right end ran ob at MIN 31 for 2 yards (36-R.Blanton).

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model