Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 89

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Seattle Seahawks 38

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to MIN 49, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-B.Daniels to MIN 42 for 7 yards (59-J.Trusnik). PENALTY on SEA-47-E.Pinkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.97 EP
73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 89, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model