Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:39) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 46 yards to SEA 29, Center-47-K.McDermott. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 6 yards (47-K.McDermott). PENALTY on SEA-20-J.Lane, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.20 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model