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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 5

Seattle Seahawks 35 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 5, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model