4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 💨 Windy Spread 1.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ATL
45.4%
TB
54.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Wind 18 mph
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.110 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21
–
TB 23
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

ATL

Matt Bryant K Out right Quadricep
Tony Moeaki TE Out Hamstring
Devonta Freeman RB Probable Concussion
Brooks Reed LB Probable Knee
Paul Soliai DT Probable Calf
Nathan Stupar LB Probable Neck
Chris Chester G Probable Shoulder
Justin Durant LB Probable Ankle

TB

George Johnson DE Out Calf
Jacquies Smith DE Out Hamstring
Bruce Carter LB Doubtful Concussion
Gerald McCoy DT Doubtful Hand
Luke Stocker TE Questionable Back
Gosder Cherilus T Questionable Knee
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Questionable Shoulder
Joe Hawley C Probable Neck
Vincent Jackson WR Probable Knee
Mike Jenkins CB Probable Quadricep
Ali Marpet G Probable Ankle
Keith Tandy S Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 19
–
TB 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:08 TD TB (1:08) 3-J.Winston scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 09:41 FG ATL (9:41) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – TB 7
  • Q2 01:06 FG ATL (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 6 – TB 7
  • Q2 00:05 FG ATL (:05) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 9 – TB 7
  • Q3 08:39 FG ATL (8:39) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 12 – TB 7
  • Q3 03:41 TD TB (3:41) 64-K.Pamphile reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 12 – TB 13
  • Q3 01:25 FG TB (1:25) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. ATL 12 – TB 16
  • Q4 10:48 TD ATL (10:48) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 15-N.Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 18 – TB 16
  • Q4 01:47 TD TB (1:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 19 – TB 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 37%

    (10:41) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:40) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to TB 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-B.Rainey to TB 23 for 13 yards (27-R.Therezie).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (9:41) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (5:06) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 32 yards to ATL 8, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-48-A.DePaola.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 70%

    (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 57%

    (:05) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (8:39) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 20 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:11) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 61 yards to TB 38, Center-47-J.Harris. 43-B.Rainey to ATL 34 for 28 yards (50-O.Schofield).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (1:25) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to TB 36, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:53) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 39 yards to ATL 38, Center-48-A.DePaola. 17-D.Hester to ATL 41 for 3 yards (52-J.George).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (7:04) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.