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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(7:04) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP