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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:06) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 32 yards to ATL 8, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-48-A.DePaola.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model