Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Atlanta Falcons 19

(9:53) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 39 yards to ATL 38, Center-48-A.DePaola. 17-D.Hester to ATL 41 for 3 yards (52-J.George).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model