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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Field Goal formation) 6-S.Graham 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.85 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP