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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.94 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model