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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
47.4%
IND
52.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Matt Hasselbeck (IND): +0.121 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TB 21
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

George Johnson DE Out Calf
Keith Tandy S Out Concussion
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Doubtful Shoulder
Ali Marpet G Questionable Ankle
Josh Shirley DE Probable Calf
Evan Smith C Probable Knee

IND

Anthony Castonzo T Out Knee
Phillip Dorsett WR Out Ankle
Andrew Luck QB Out Abdomen
Mike Adams S Doubtful Ankle
Gregory Toler CB Questionable Groin
Erik Walden LB Questionable Foot
Vontae Davis CB Probable Hamstring
Jerrell Freeman LB Probable Rib
Frank Gore RB Probable Ankle
Sio Moore LB Probable Back
D'Joun Smith CB Probable Knee
Hugh Thornton G Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 12
–
IND 25

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 FG IND (8:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TB 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 02:55 FG TB (2:55) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 3 – IND 3
  • Q2 12:48 FG IND (12:48) 4-A.Vinatieri 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TB 3 – IND 6
  • Q2 05:43 FG TB (5:43) 10-C.Barth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 6 – IND 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD TB (2:00) (Run formation) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 84-C.Brate for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – IND 6
  • Q3 10:05 FG IND (10:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TB 12 – IND 9
  • Q3 07:29 TD IND (7:29) (No Huddle) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – IND 15
  • Q3 01:07 FG IND (1:07) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TB 12 – IND 19
  • Q4 05:58 TD IND (5:58) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – IND 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 75%

    (8:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (2:55) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (12:48) 4-A.Vinatieri 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (5:43) 10-C.Barth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:48) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to TB 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 43-B.Rainey to TB 24 for 7 yards (83-D.Allen).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:14) 5-J.Schum punts 44 yards to IND 36, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (10:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:39) 5-J.Schum punts 54 yards to IND 34, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at TB 46 for 20 yards (48-A.DePaola).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 64%

    (4:02) 10-C.Barth 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. PENALTY on TB-70-L.Mankins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 44.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 83%

    (1:07) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:32) 5-J.Schum punts 44 yards to IND 24, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%

    (3:52) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Brate (55-N.Irving).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:53) 1-P.McAfee punts 56 yards to TB 18, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-42-C.Geathers.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 32%

    (:34) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to TB 6, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.