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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model