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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 9

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 4-A.Vinatieri 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model