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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(:34) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to TB 6, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP