Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

(4:48) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to TB 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 43-B.Rainey to TB 24 for 7 yards (83-D.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.45 EP
51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model