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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 88

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Indianapolis Colts 9

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 5-J.Schum punts 54 yards to IND 34, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at TB 46 for 20 yards (48-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 88, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model