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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

NO
51.7%
HOU
48.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NO on 7 more days rest than HOU
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Brian Hoyer (HOU) +0.105 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.124 EPA/dropback (HOU starting Brian Hoyer in place of T.J. Yates)

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NO

Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Hip
David Hawthorne LB Out Thigh
Damian Swann CB Out Concussion
Stephone Anthony LB Probable Lower Leg
Ramon Humber LB Probable Hamstring
Mark Ingram RB Probable Shoulder
Willie Snead WR Probable Knee
Terron Armstead T Probable Knee
Hau'oli Kikaha LB Probable Ankle

HOU

A.J. Bouye CB Probable Concussion
Max Bullough LB Probable Shoulder
Jadeveon Clowney LB Probable Wrist
Christian Covington DT Probable Hip
Akeem Dent LB Probable Hamstring
Brian Hoyer QB Probable Concussion
Kareem Jackson CB Probable Ankle
Charles James CB Probable Foot
Ben Jones C Probable Hand
Whitney Mercilus LB Probable Back
Eddie Pleasant S Probable Neck
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Nate Washington WR Probable Hip
Alfred Blue RB Probable Back
Johnathan Joseph CB Probable Knee
Derek Newton T Probable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 6
–
HOU 24

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:07 TD HOU (7:07) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 01:35 TD HOU (1:35) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 18-C.Shorts III for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – HOU 13
  • Q2 06:35 FG NO (6:35) 5-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – HOU 14
  • Q2 01:17 FG NO (1:17) 5-K.Forbath 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 6 – HOU 14
  • Q3 11:35 TD HOU (11:35) (Shotgun) 28-A.Blue up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – HOU 20
  • Q3 06:09 FG HOU (6:09) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. NO 6 – HOU 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to HOU 18, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 30 for 12 yards (17-T.Graham; 91-K.Edebali).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to HOU 42, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-K.Mumphery to 50 for 8 yards (53-R.Humber).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:03) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to HOU 16, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 16 for no gain (20-B.Dixon).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to NO 40, Center-46-J.Weeks. 23-M.Murphy to HOU 48 for 12 yards (46-J.Weeks).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (6:35) 5-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 30%

    (2:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 57%

    (1:17) 5-K.Forbath 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 20 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to HOU 30, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 93%

    (6:09) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:43) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to HOU 37, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 48 for 11 yards (89-J.Hill). (The Punt Hang time was 4.82 seconds.) PENALTY on NO-17-T.Graham, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 48.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 16 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 46%

    (2:18) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (5:49) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Coleman (27-Q.Demps).