Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 85

Houston Texans 14 – New Orleans Saints 0

(9:05) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to NO 40, Center-46-J.Weeks. 23-M.Murphy to HOU 48 for 12 yards (46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.94 EP
55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model