Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 43

Houston Texans 24 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 9-S.Lechler punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.29 EP
74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP

KICK -0.40 EP

46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
54% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model