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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 89

New Orleans Saints 6 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to HOU 37, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 48 for 11 yards (89-J.Hill). (The Punt Hang time was 4.82 seconds.) PENALTY on NO-17-T.Graham, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.53 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 89, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.68 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model