4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 12

New Orleans Saints 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 5-K.Forbath 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.14 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP