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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 5-K.Forbath 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.64 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model