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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

WAS
37.9%
CAR
62.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.008 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 20
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

WAS

Trenton Robinson S Out Hamstring
Terrance Knighton DT Questionable Migraine
Keenan Robinson LB Questionable Shoulder
Chris Baker DE Probable Ankle
Bashaud Breeland CB Probable Hamstring
Dashon Goldson S Probable Wrist
Jason Hatcher DE Probable Knee
Ryan Kerrigan LB Probable Hand
Josh LeRibeus C Probable Elbow
Spencer Long G Probable Hip
Alfred Morris RB Probable Rib
Andre Roberts WR Probable Ankle
Brandon Scherff G Probable Thigh
Chris Culliver CB Probable Knee
DeAngelo Hall CB Probable Toe

CAR

Andrew Norwell G Out Hamstring
Corey Brown WR Doubtful Shoulder
Charles Tillman CB Doubtful Knee
Jared Allen DE Probable Not Injury Related
Dwan Edwards DT Probable Ankle
Fozzy Whittaker RB Probable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 16
–
CAR 44

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:01 TD CAR (10:01) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 28-J.Stewart for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-28-J.Stewart, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. WAS 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 08:36 TD WAS (8:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 11-D.Jackson for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-24-J.Norman, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. WAS 6 – CAR 7
  • Q1 00:47 TD CAR (:47) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 35-M.Tolbert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – CAR 13
  • Q1 00:41 TD WAS 9-G.Gano kicks 64 yards from CAR 35 to WAS 1. 12-A.Roberts for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – CAR 14
  • Q2 08:29 TD CAR (8:29) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle to 19-T.Ginn. Penalty on WAS-29-C.Culliver, Defensive Holding, declined. Carolina challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 19-T.Ginn for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Defensive Holding was declined because of the reversal. WAS 14 – CAR 20
  • Q2 05:19 TD CAR (5:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – CAR 27
  • Q2 00:03 FG CAR (:03) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. WAS 14 – CAR 31
  • Q3 13:57 TD CAR (13:57) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – CAR 37
  • Q3 04:08 FG CAR (4:08) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. WAS 14 – CAR 41
  • Q4 10:39 FG CAR (10:39) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. WAS 14 – CAR 44
  • Q4 00:28 SAF WAS (:28) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (96-H.Bates). WAS 16 – CAR 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:13) 8-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to WAS 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 16 for 2 yards (21-T.Williams). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 16.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:35) 8-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to WAS 34, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 35 for 1 yard (42-C.Jones).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:27) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CAR 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:31) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to CAR 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-20-J.Johnson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:01) 8-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:58) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to CAR 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 32 for 1 yard (89-D.Carrier). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 32.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (4:08) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (10:39) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 86-J.Reed to WAS 32 for 7 yards (20-K.Coleman; 56-A.Klein). WAS-71-Trent.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:18) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-B.Bersin.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (4:56) 8-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to WAS 22, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:34) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to CAR 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-14-R.Grant.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 99 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +2.84 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (:28) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (96-H.Bates).