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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 84

Washington Commanders 14 – Carolina Panthers 38

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to CAR 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 32 for 1 yard (89-D.Carrier). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 32.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model