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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 86

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(14:35) 8-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to WAS 34, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 35 for 1 yard (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model