Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 84

Washington Commanders 14 – Carolina Panthers 38

(12:31) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to CAR 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-20-J.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model