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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 38 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model