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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 8-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to WAS 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 16 for 2 yards (21-T.Williams). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model