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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 7.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

TB
43.5%
PHI
56.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Mark Sanchez (PHI): -0.053 EPA/dropback in prior starts (PHI starting Mark Sanchez in place of Sam Bradford)
  • TB offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Mark Sanchez (PHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

TB 18
–
PHI 21
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

TB

George Johnson DE Out Calf
Josh Shirley DE Doubtful Calf
Vincent Jackson WR Questionable Knee
Ali Marpet G Questionable Ankle
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Questionable Shoulder
Evan Smith C Questionable Knee
Jacquies Smith DE Questionable Ankle
Major Wright S Probable Hamstring

PHI

Sam Bradford QB Out Concussion
Jerome Couplin S Out Shoulder
Ryan Mathews RB Out Concussion
Jason Peters T Questionable Back
Josh Andrews G Probable Concussion
Connor Barwin LB Probable Quadricep
Josh Huff WR Probable Back
DeMeco Ryans LB Probable Hamstring
Walter Thurmond S Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 45
–
PHI 17

Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:44 TD PHI (11:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez pass short right to 13-J.Huff for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 02:54 TD TB (2:54) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 6 – PHI 7
  • Q2 15:00 TD TB (15:00) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 83-V.Jackson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – PHI 7
  • Q2 08:10 TD TB (8:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 89-R.Shepard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – PHI 7
  • Q2 06:12 TD PHI (6:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez pass short right to 43-D.Sproles for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 21 – PHI 13
  • Q2 01:11 TD TB (1:11) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 34-C.Sims for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – PHI 14
  • Q3 05:16 TD TB (5:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 34 – PHI 14
  • Q4 12:05 FG TB (12:05) 10-C.Barth 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 38 – PHI 14
  • Q4 05:14 FG PHI (5:14) 6-C.Sturgis 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. TB 38 – PHI 17
  • Q4 04:21 TD TB (4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez pass short left intended for 43-D.Sproles INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David at PHI 20. 54-L.David for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI-19-M.Austin, Illegal Substitution, declined. TB 44 – PHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 53%

    (7:46) 5-J.Schum punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:58) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to TB 15, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 43-B.Rainey to TB 25 for 10 yards (42-C.Maragos).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:15) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to TB 41, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:56) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at TB 48 for 23 yards (46-J.Dorenbos). PENALTY on TB-31-M.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 30.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:49) 5-J.Schum punts 51 yards to PHI 29, Center-48-A.DePaola. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 36 for 7 yards (51-D.Lansanah).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:19) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to TB 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 43-B.Rainey to TB 15 for 4 yards (42-C.Maragos).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 32%

    (2:00) 22-D.Martin up the middle to PHI 41 for 3 yards (23-N.Carroll).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 21%

    (2:20) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (12:05) 10-C.Barth 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:17) 5-J.Schum punts 47 yards to PHI 17, Center-48-A.DePaola. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 16 for -1 yards (24-M.Jenkins).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 80%

    (5:14) 6-C.Sturgis 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 15 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 19%

    (4:48) 5-J.Schum punts 45 yards to PHI 5, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on TB-48-A.DePaola, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 5.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 25%

    (1:11) 8-D.Jones punts 35 yards to TB 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.