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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 10-C.Barth 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model