4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 6-C.Sturgis 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.59 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model