Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at TB 48 for 23 yards (46-J.Dorenbos). PENALTY on TB-31-M.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.74 EP
61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model