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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 5-J.Schum punts 47 yards to PHI 17, Center-48-A.DePaola. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 16 for -1 yards (24-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.91 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model