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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 5-J.Schum punts 45 yards to PHI 5, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds. PENALTY on TB-48-A.DePaola, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 5.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.56 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model