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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 16:25 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DEN
48.0%
IND
52.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.198 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Andrew Luck (IND) -0.070 vs Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.035 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DEN

Jordan Norwood WR Out Hamstring
Shane Ray LB Out Knee
Ronnie Hillman RB Questionable Thigh
Owen Daniels TE Probable Shoulder
C.J. Anderson RB Probable Ankle
Shaquil Barrett LB Probable Toe
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Peyton Manning QB Probable right Shoulder
Emmanuel Sanders WR Probable Shoulder
DeMarcus Ware LB Probable Back

IND

Phillip Dorsett WR Out Ankle
Nate Irving LB Out Knee
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Foot
Darius Butler CB Probable Foot
Winston Guy S Probable Shoulder
Andrew Luck QB Probable Ankle
Khaled Holmes C Probable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 24
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:52 TD IND (6:52) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 12:17 FG IND (12:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. DEN 0 – IND 10
  • Q2 07:18 TD IND (7:18) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 84-J.Doyle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – IND 16
  • Q2 00:15 TD DEN (:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to DEN 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 31-O.Bolden for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – IND 17
  • Q3 11:37 TD DEN (11:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – IND 17
  • Q3 05:01 FG DEN (5:01) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 17 – IND 17
  • Q4 14:09 TD IND (14:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 44-A.Bradshaw for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – IND 23
  • Q4 08:58 TD DEN (8:58) 53-J.Ferentz reported in as eligible. 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 81-O.Daniels for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – IND 24
  • Q4 06:18 FG IND (6:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. DEN 24 – IND 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:42) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 18 for no gain (31-O.Bolden).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:07) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to DEN 29, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%

    (10:39) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to IND 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-40-J.Thompson.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

    (3:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to IND 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 83%

    (12:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:36) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to IND 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray to IND 23 for 3 yards (30-D.Bruton).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (1:53) 1-P.McAfee punts 35 yards to DEN 26, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:33) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to IND 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at IND 27 for -1 yards (36-K.Webster).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to DEN 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 31-O.Bolden for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:00) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to DEN 25, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND. PENALTY on IND-27-W.Guy, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 25.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (9:45) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to DEN 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 31-O.Bolden.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (5:01) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 58%

    (6:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.